A while back, I wrote an editorial for Dark Wisdom magazine (issue #8, www.darkwisdom.com) that produced quite a bit of interest. As that particular issue is sold out at many locations, I figured I'd re-ignite the topic by posting the editorial here (slightly modified):
For decades readers, writers, and publishers have speculated upon the future of the printed word. Much ink and paper has been dedicated to predictions that some day electronic media will replace the archaic “printed word.” After all, e-texts are low cost, take little space, and can even have “content on demand.” However, all of these advantages are commonly countered with arguments that rely upon the “senses”: the feel, weight, and smell of a printed book can never be replaced. To thwart this, manufacturers have tried to produce reading-pads, or displays that in many ways mimic books — feel, heft, and ease of use (such as flipping a page with a touch) are all existing and proposed technologies. Still the debate still rages, with many publishers straddling the fence, producing both printed and electronic material. But there might be something overlooked in this on-going debate. Regardless of form, will there be anyone to read in the future?
Recently in the U.S. the National Education Center for Statistics (NCES) presented a literacy survey spanning from 1992 to 2003. The results do not bode well for print or e-books. The survey of “prose” readers are divided into several categories, with “Proficient” at the top of the scale, defined as a reader capable of understanding complex prose — this includes skills such as analyzing and making inferences from a work such as a novel or a short story. Other categories are “Below Basic,” “Basic,” and “Intermediate.” The NCES defines “Intermediate” as possessing “skills necessary to perform simple and everyday literacy activities.” This includes comprehending “simple” prose and understanding an author’s overall intention. Furthermore, what the survey revealed is that 15% of the U.S. population possessed Proficient literacy skills in 1992, with the remainder falling into the lower categories. In 2003 that 15% number had dropped to 13%, a figure the NCES considers to be a significant decrease. As for the Intermediate range, the number raised from 43% in 1992 to 44% in 20033. Overall, the indications are clear, the number of skilled readers is decreasing in the United States.
Another interesting finding is that in 1992, 16% of the overall Proficient readers were males, and 14% were females. By the turn of the century, the 2003 figures indicate a dramatic decrease among the males — 13% — while females remained level at 14%.
Accompanying these figures is also a shift in the age group of Proficient readers. In 1992 the largest body of readers in all categories fell into the 25-39 age group. This portion accounted for 33% of all readers. Eleven years later, and that group has dropped to 28% — once again, a shift the NCES considers to be significant. Where did the readers go? It appears some have aged, as the 40-49 age bracket increased from 17% in 1992 to 20% in 2003. And perhaps some of the borderline readers dropped into the next age group: 50-64. These readers increased from 16% to 21%, yet another significant change. Meanwhile, the remainder of the categories has either remained static or decreased.
To the Proficient reader, what this indicates is the number of readers is growing older, and not increasing in numbers. In fact, Proficient readers and male readers are on the decline, and female readers seem to be relatively unchanged. Just for the record, I am classifying “readers” as those from the Intermediate and Proficient categories.
These literacy survey results might change the locus of the print/electronic argument; without people to read texts, the format makes little difference. Perhaps the future isn’t heading toward a digital library, but one where reading is a lost skill — something more akin to the ancients’ view: a magical art. Of course, many would argue that audio books will be the new future. At first glance it seems that literacy skills are not required to listen to prose. That is not entirely true, however. Having a book read aloud is perhaps more difficult for the listener to comprehend, as the prose structure and language used are often overlooked. Hearing the printed word also obscures elements of fiction such as structure and the play of words. However, with today’s audio books, actors are sometimes left to interpret the text, and musical scores provide the emotional cues for the listener.
Maybe this negates the necessity for Proficient literacy skills, as those re-producing the book perform the required interpretations. If so, then maybe the issue at hand is not the future of the printed word, but the future of the audience. Will there be anyone to read or even listen to prose? Is writing itself, and not the medium, facing a dilemma, perhaps in its final chapter, an epilogue of extinction? I certainly enjoy listening to audio books, but I often find myself caught-up in the accessories, wondering how much is owed to the “reader” and production, and how much is owed to the author. I’ve certainly found some audio books that are better when professionally read. Simple vocal inflection and strong acting can do wonders for poor writing.
This discussion intentionally avoids film, even though many propose it is the emerging medium (a good text on this is Movie Made America: A Cultural History of American Film, by Robert Sklar; it argues that Hollywood is a part of American culture — where else would film stars become elected leaders?). And with fewer readers, there are less and less people who say “the film wasn’t as good as the book.” Rather, I often hear, “the book ripped-off the film.” So is the question really print or electronic? Or are we beyond that? Readers appear to be a slowly dying group.
With more books in print than in any previous point in history, who is it that is doing the buying? Maybe we’ve been focused on the wrong point all these years. There isn’t a battle between print and electronic books; it isn’t one or the other that will vanish; it seems it is the readers who are disappearing. To read or not to read? Is that the question?